Paris Climate Deal: Blessing or symbol of injustice?

Manzurul Alam Mukul: After about two decades of fraught meetings and talks including the two weeks spent in an exhibition hall on the outskirts of Paris, the World governments on December 12 agreed on a historic international agreement to fight global warming.

At the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21), negotiators from nearly 200 countries signed the 31-page Paris Agreement that has set ambitious goals to limit temperature rises and to hold states to account for reaching those targets.

Over 30,000 officials, business leaders, scientists, and activists were involved in the U.N.’s two-week climate talks.

Before the Paris conference began, each country submitted an action pledge, known as an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), laying out what it will do to curb emissions, increase renewable energy, and/or reduce deforestation.

But it is too late? The effects of climate change are already being felt in all corners of the globe. From melting Arctic ice to increasing forest fires in the tropics. Freak weather phenomenons such as El Nino are changing weather patterns and upsetting traditional cycles of agriculture and ways of life.

The Paris Agreement and the accompanying decision has undoubtedly been welcomed by many countries present at the summit for different reasons. On the other hand, many countries and critics expressed doubt about effectiveness of the deal.

Key features in the deal include:
An overall temperature goal: The Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming to a maximum limit of two-degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with a goal of eventually lowering that even further to about 1.5 degrees. And it promises to cap global carbon emissions ‘as soon as possible’.

The agreement also aims to achieve net zero emissions by the second half of the century, though there`s no specific timeline. The agreement commits the countries to report progress to a U.N. body in cutting carbon emissions every five years, beginning in 2023.


Financing for poor countries: Poorer countries will need help in adopting clean energy and adapting to climate impacts.  Rich countries have agreed to raise $100bn (£66bn) a year by 2020 to help the poor countries invest in clean energy and cope with sea-level rise, droughts, floods, and other ravages of climate change. So, the deal requires developed countries to provide aid for this purpose, although it doesn`t mandate a specific number. 

Facilitative dialogue: The basic reality is that the Paris agreement can only encourage countries to step up their efforts. It can`t force them to do so. A facilitative dialogue of countries is to be held in 2018 to review the collective efforts.

Transparency measures and legal status: The climate pledges themselves are not binding-if a country fails to cut emissions as much as it had promised, there are no penalties or anything. But much of the supporting structure is binding: the transparency mechanisms, the promise to come back every five years, etc. 

Countries like China and India opposed overly intrusive inspections, which is why the deal calls for a ‘transparency framework’ that is facilitative, non-intrusive, non-punitive manner and respectful of national sovereignty.

Tax on carbon: The accord doesn’t include a tax on carbon.

It is not a treaty: The Paris Agreement is not a treaty, and countries’ INDCs are not binding. The Obama administration made sure of this so it wouldn’t have to submit the deal to the U.S. Senate for approval. Another potential problem with the agreement is that it doesn’t directly tackle one of the biggest sources of man-made carbon emissions: coal.
 

Friends of the Earth Europe was downright disappointed, calling the Paris deal “a sham”. Rich countries have pushed through a very bad deal in a bid achieve their goals.

A former NASA scientist, who did much to popularize the dangers of climate changes, dismissed the Paris talks as a “fraud” and “just worthless words.”

 
* 24 organizations formed a Human Chain recently in Dhaka and made the demand that Bangladesh should reject the agreement and must be refrain to sign it. They also demanded resignation of the Forest and Environment minister as he failed to uphold the interest of the country in the Paris Climate Conference.
 


World leaders welcome  climate pact
The world leaders led by US President Barack Obama welcomed the adoption of a legally-binding pact seeking to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, calling it a big step forward in securing the planet for future generations. 

French President Francois Hollande termed the day as a great date for the planet.

The international deal on limiting climate change represents “a huge step forward in securing the future of the planet”, British Prime Minister David Cameron has said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel welcomed the deal, saying it will oblige the entire global community to act against global climate change.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon termed the agreement as a “monumental triumph” for planet Earth that will set the stage for achieving an end to poverty and development for all.

China termed the pact as “a new beginning in international cooperation”.

According to Russian envoy at climate talks, the Paris accords show a significant progress in curbing climate issues but the deal requires a serious work on its implementation.

The World Bank welcomed the “historic” agreement, saying it reflects aspiration and seriousness to preserve the planet for future generations.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that the Paris Agreement is a critical step forward for addressing the challenge of global climate change in the 21st century.

Greenpeace hailed the agreement saying, “Today the human race has joined in a common cause.”



Global warming and its effects continue
According to a recent World Bank report, without the right policies to keep the poor safe from extreme weather and rising seas, climate change could drive over 100 million more people into poverty by 2030.

Climate change is already hurting them through decreased crop yields, floods washing away assets and livelihoods, and a bigger threat of diseases like malaria, the World Bank report said.

According to a new UN-backed report, in the past 20 years, 90 per cent of major disasters around the world were caused by nearly 6,500 recorded floods, storms, heatwaves, droughts and other weather-related events.

The report, titled The Human Cost of Weather Related Disasters, found that since 1995, over 600,000 people have died as a result of weather-related disasters with 4.1 billion people injured, left homeless or in need of emergency assistance.

According to the report, Asia accounts for the “lion’s share of disaster impacts” including 332,000 deaths and 3.7 billion people affected.

Six years after the chaotic ending of the Copenhagen climate summit, the Paris Agreement for the first time commits rich countries, rising economies and some of the poorest countries to work together to curb emissions.

The basic reality, though, is that the Paris agreement can only encourage countries to step up their efforts. It can`t force them to do so.

In 1928, representatives of fifteen countries, including the United States, France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, gathered in the French capital and signed the General Treaty for Renunciation of War. Despite the treaty’s lack of an enforcement mechanism, its signing was hailed in some quarters as a historic turning point that would help keep the world at peace. In 1929, Kellogg received the Nobel Peace Prize. By 1933, sixty-five countries had agreed to abide by the agreement, but within a decade, the world was at war.

Finally, it can be said the universal nature of the agreement was a radical departure from the Kyoto Protocol, the 1997 agreement that drew sharp divisions between the obligations of wealthy and developing countries but ultimately failed to lower emissions. Unlike Kyoto, the agreement reached on depends on political will, with countries setting their own climate action plans.

The Paris climate agreement hasn`t saved the planet, and it hasn`t solved global warming. Not by itself. Instead, the deal is supposed to add structure and momentum to efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris agreement will depend on what future policies get enacted by individual countries, on how quickly we switch over to alternative energy sources, on how technology evolves. So, how this works in practice remains to be seen.

Risingbd/DHAKA/Dec 27, 2015